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Did some statistics. We were both right sort of:
While the standard deviation gets much bigger with lower confidence and also the mean error gets bigger, it is still not as totally off as I would have expected:See scatter plot of dHR over confidence (dHR is differnce between bangle reading and a polar H10) and the standard deviation over confidence in the two attached pictures.
This recording is from walking on pavement and driving car as a passanger. For an other recording with walking on rough terrain, the result is pretty much the same, just higher amount of data with low confidence.
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Mi
If you look at the first 4 rows in the screenshot. Heart rate 99 - confidence 40, then confidence is 0 for the next 8 readings but most were close to 100 bpm.