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@Gordon
Did the distance and duration shown in the UI start from 0? As far as I can tell the pace comes from exactly those values, so I guess one of them must be off.
I did notice that without the kalman filter code, the reported distance does seem to be a bit higher than I remember it being before - so that could be it.
The problem I have is I'm receiving conflicting reports! I had someone earlier tell me that what seemed to be the uncorrected distance calculated from the GPS trace matched up exactly with an Apple watch, so I thought I'd just use that. But it seems that maybe the GPS trace does need some kind of filtering now (or maybe altitude shouldn't be taken into account since that does fluctuate a lot due to GPS being less accurate for height).